CES - 2007

The 2007 Consumer Electronics Show was recently held in Las Vegas.  It was my 21st year attending the annual show which celebrated its 40th anniversary this year.  Since my first show in 1987, the show - and the city of Las Vegas - have both changed dramatically.

But even as things change, sometimes they stay the same.  As in 1987, video products still dominate the show floor at the Las Vegas Convention Center; but computers, whole house control, personal communication devices and accessories make up the bulk of what is shown at CES.  Most of the main stream companies in the specialty audio/video world either do not show at CES any longer, or they show at a hotel near the convention center.  This year, as with last year, my company showed our products in four suites on the 28th floor of the Las Vegas Hilton. 

The highlights at CES were many including the "mine is bigger than yours" posturing going on between Sharp and Panasonic.  Panasonic showed a 103" Plasma display unit (above), billing it the world's largest plasma television, beating out the 102" Samsung plasma display unveiled at last year's CES.  The Panasonic plasma retails for about $70,000, but is significantly less than the over $100,000 price tag the Samsung plasma was introduced at last year. 

(Just to give you an idea as to how plasma display prices have dropped over the past year - LG's 71" plasma display now has a suggested retail price of $15,000.  It was $75,000 when it was first introduced last year.) 

Sharp immediately unzipped their pants to unfurl a 108" LCD display unit.  This unit will be available in the fall of 2007 and a suggested retail price hasn't been announced.  But guesses are that it will retail at or around $75,000. 

The biggest problems with these units are - of course - the price, and the size.  Getting them into any conventional home will be a nightmare.  Plus the fact that they weigh so much, special installation brackets will not only be needed to hold the panels up, but it could be that a fork lift may be needed to maneuver the unit to it's final resting space.  That's not to feasible in the vast majority of today's homes.

LCD displays have come a long way in the past year in terms of size (many units over 40" are available on the market place) and in technology.  Manufacturers have finally doubled the frame rate on the televisions from 60 frames per second to 120 frames per second to cut down on the motion artifacts that plagued LCD panels - especially during fast motion scenes or sporting events.  This now puts them on a par with many plasma display units in terms of picture quality.

Industry forecasts call for nearly 20 million flat panel displays to be sold in the United States in 2007 with 75% of those units sold being LCD displays.    

Other big revelations at CES this year included the Apple Iphone, but Microsoft and Sony announced plans that will close the gap between television and personal computers to allow complete access to communications and internet use, as well as distributing personal video content to the user. 

Users will be able to watch their favorite television programs on demand on a personal viewing device, similar to a laptop computer.  And in the future they may be able to watch sporting events live as they happen.   Industry experts say this process - called "connectivity" - is the next wave of how a person will view television programming. 

Microsoft's Bill Gates also heralded the arrival of products that will connect the video, entertainment and gaming experience all bundled into the Xbox 360 game console.  Similar to a personal viewing device, users will download content from Microsoft's Xbox 360 Live web site. 

Panelists on a television program that was broadcast live to Las Vegas hotel rooms during the Consumer Electronics Show said the cable television industry and satellite providers could ultimately be the ones that feel the hurt over personal viewing devices.  And with the mini-skirmishes going on now between cable providers, satellite providers, broadcast companies and specific networks, "connectivity" could play a big role as to how these factions work together in the future.  (I'll have more on the little wars going on in the broadcasting world in a future blog post.)

The Venetian was the home to the high-end audio exhibits this year.  I talked to a number of dealers and manufacturers representatives who spent some time at the Venetian.  While they all said it was a great change from the Alexis Park in terms of display areas, it was so overrun by techno-geeks and end-users that it was difficult to get around in the hallways and to talk with manufacturers one-on-one. 

For years, I've been sold on DLP technology over other formats for rear or front projection televisions.  I'm starting to change my mind.  One of my companies, DreamVision, unveiled a new front projector - the DreamBee - (I know, it's a stupid name) that featured a three-chip Digital Direct Drive Image Light Amplifier, or commonly known as D-ILA.  The picture on the DreamBee was stunning.  We had industry press people and critics saying it was the best video display at the show.  I have to say I was overly blown away at the picture quality of the unit, as well. 

The biggest obstacle with D-ILA continues to be the price.  D-ILA projection units still are much higher priced than their DLP counterparts.  (The suggested retail price of the DreamBee is $7799, while DLP rear projection televisions are beginning to come down below $2000.)  And as DLP projection televisions continue to drop in price, many of the ones on the market are still very good for the price. 

However, the biggest advantage with D-ILA is that you don't get the "rainbow" effect from the color wheel DLP televisions use, the contrast ratio (the mathematical formula that figures the difference between the darkest blacks and the brightest whites) is very high on D-ILA units vs. DLP, and the colors are about as true as you can get on any television.

The HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray format war for high definition DVD's was still hot and heavy in Las Vegas, even though most video aficionados have declared HD-DVD the winner when it comes to providing top drawer video content.  Blu-Ray, with their higher capacity for storage of digital video information, may be relegated to the computer gaming industry and multi-media storage; while more companies are pushing HD-DVD for movies. 

Blu-Ray isn't going out with a whimper, however.  During a press conference at CES, the Blu-Ray consortium - headed by Sony - announced the format war was over and the winner was Blu-Ray.  However, their creative mathematics hid the fact that more companies - both electronics companies and movie studios - have embraced HD-DVD over Blu-Ray. 

Blu-Ray pointed out that their software sales were up over 700% in 2006 vs. 2005.  But most of that had to do with the introduction of Sony's Playstation 3 which uses Blu-Ray discs for much of the games.

For those of you who are confused about the formats and would like to have one video player to play both, LG Electronics introduced a dual format high definition DVD player. The player will be available in the first quarter of 2007, but will carry a hefty $1200 price tag.  I think you'll see more of these combo machines from other companies, but it's my firm belief HD-DVD units will be the choice of most manufacturers and end-users in 2007 and beyond.   

There's so much more that I could go on and on about that was featured at this year's CES.  But the best thing to do is to go to your local audio/video store and see the bulk of these products when they're introduced later this year.  Going to CES is truly like looking into the future. 

Comments

[Robert Goodwin]

Excellent wrap-up from CES. If they call it the Consumer Electronics Show why don't they let consumer's into the show? I read that it's closed to the public.

[Will]

Robert, consumers have been finding their way into CES for a number of years. All you need to do is go to any number of audio/video forums on the internet and each year there's always someone who gives directions as how to get in. Actually, it's pretty easy to do.

With that said, I guess I'm old school in that I think CES should be open only to the trade. If an end-user wants to see the latest and greatest stuff, that's what your local audio/video store is there for.

Since my living is predicated upon making sure audio/video stores stay in business, I detest the amount of consumers who make it into CES each year. And the Consumer Electronics Association (parent of CES) will not do anything to stop the tide as they garner kick backs from Las Vegas hotels for keeping the number of attendees high.

This year, I had less than 10% of my total dealers show up for CES. It was the same for a number of other regions around the nation. But, once again, the CEA announced record attendance figures of over 147,000 attendees for CES. So where is the increase coming from? End-users.

Consumers waste the time of all manufacturers that show at CES. When we're trying to conduct business with our current or potential dealers and consumers are interrupting and being just plain rude when asking questions.

And the worst ones are the consumers who try to pass themselves off as dealers. I have absolutely no time for those people.

I'm hoping the CEA changes the name of the show to the Professional Electronics Show or something like that. With the "Consumer" in the title, end-users think they have an invitation into the show.

But as long as they continue to encourage growth by lining their pockets from kick-backs from Las Vegas hotels, the CEA will never clamp down on end-users showing up at CES.

[Tony Jobe]

CES was actually open to the public once about 15 years ago. I recall attending the show at McCormick Place in Chicago. It was a one time experiment that ended with that show.

I think it would be pretty cool to open up at least a portion of the show to the general public. They could still keep part of it open only to dealers.

After all, part of the reason for trade shows is to create a buzz and get end users excited about buying the latest and greatest products.

End users can't just go to their local audio/video store to see this stuff because a lot of it won't be available in stores for several months.

We wanna see it now, dammit. :)

[Will]

CES was open to the public for two years in Chicago back in 1993 and 1994. Those were the last two years the show was held in Chicago. The results were deemed a success by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), but most manufacturers called it a woefully failed experiment.

The CEA was grasping at straws trying to keep attendance high at the Summer CES in Chicago. But most manufacturers had abandoned Chicago in favor of one CES show in Vegas. And that was primarily due to two factors - the high price of union labor in Chicago; and the advent and rise of the Custom Electronic Design and Installation Association (CEDIA) show.

Tony, you're right in that people can't go to stores to see the new stuff - mainly because a lot of things that are shown at CES are prototypes or works in project. A lot of times these are products that are "floated" for feedback from dealers who have a firm grasp on the direction and needs of end users.

As I said, a lot of end-users get into CES in Las Vegas. For the most part they are time wasters and propeller heads who are rude and demanding. Their feedback is usually unreasonable and unproductive. But the CEA isn't doing anything to try and keep them out of CES so their presence is going to continue to alienate the exhibitors and cause more manufacturers to pull out of the show.